The future in a ‘death spiral state’

Forbes.com asks, “Do you live in a death spiral state?”

For those who live in Illinois and other state government disaster areas, that answer is Yes Of Course We Do.

For reference, here’s how Forbes qualifies what “death spiral” means: (1) more takers than makers, which means more people who draw from the government rather than pay into it, and (2) a state credit situation downgraded for large debt, uncompetitive business climate, and weak home prices and employment numbers.

But what is a “death spiral”? What does it really mean to actual people? Well, I’m no expert on economics, but I do play one on this blog, and I know a thing or two about it, so here is my take on what a “death spiral” means for actual people.

First of all, abstract debt numbers like $80 or 90 billion help almost nobody, because almost  nobody comprehends them. ‘Billion’ looks and sounds like ‘million’, but a billion is 1,000 times more than a million, so it is a much larger number. It’s 1,000,000,000 vs. 1,000,000. See the difference? Nine zeros, not just six.

The majority of those who may not fully grasp the gravity of the fiscal situation in Illinois do not understand such numbers in any meaningful way – and why should they? They are irrelevant to our lives. Regular folks have no reason at all to understand them.

But regular folks do have a reason to understand that fiscal realities will eventually have a real-world impact on regular people, on our jobs, our cost of living, our taxes, our property values, and the quality of our schools, among other things. Huge debts cause lower credit ratings – which just happened again to Illinois last week - which means higher borrowing costs for the state going forward for every bond issued. Those costs are passed on to the taxpayer, of course – bonds scheduled to be issued today, in fact, will now cost the taxpayers of Illinois $95M more in interest for that single bond issue. In addition, the state income tax has already doubled, which will more than likely decrease the income to the state treasury, making the budget deficit and debt worse instead of better.

Imagine a vicious cycle of increasing tax burdens and decreasing municipal and state services which causes jobs to flee the state, incomes and property values to decline, and school quality and other community services to suffer. Each of those feeds the other, and quality of life declines in just about every conceivable way. Lather, rinse, repeat. That is what a death spiral might look like.

Need more details? How about budget cuts in the schools leading to cutting teachers, and programs like band, drama, and sports, but probably not the administrators, whose role in educating children is almost nil. Budget cuts in city and county services, like picking up garbage less often, fewer snowplows and people to man them to keep streets clear, and firing building inspectors which will slow down every real estate transaction and construction project. Higher property taxes since declining state tax revenues will impact public schools and others who rely on state funding, and the government trough has to get filled from somewhere. Higher unemployment and declining property values from all of the above, plus businesses leaving and downsizing. Add to that the many young people saddled with huge college debt that they simply can never repay (nor can they discharge it via bankruptcy), and people who cannot find work and are essentially forced to drop out of the labor force and become takers rather than makers. Lather, rinse, repeat.

People have choices in life. Those who own a business now, or would start one, have choices on where to do that. Those who have a family and career now, or are ready to start down that path, have choices on where to do that, too. They can choose a place like Illinois with a spending problem and a rather “iffy” prognosis for recovery, or a place that is stable and growing and where people have jobs and where schools are more likely to improve than to go downhill.

Is there something special about Illinois that can overcome those disadvantages? What would those be? The beautiful scenery? The fantastic climate? I don’t think so.

The rational, logical side of my brain understands this and accepts the conclusion for what it is, but the emotional side of my brain says, “this sure as hell is not the world I was counting on for my kids”.

 

The invisible crisis: educational achievement continues to decline among boys and young men

The evidence is growing that boys and young men are lagging girls and young women in many important educational measures.

Some of the details:

1. 57% of students in post-secondary education are women.
2. Girls enrolled in gifted and talented education programs outnumber boys enrolled, e.g., 8.1% of girls participated in gifted and talented education programs in 2009 compared to 7.4% of boys.
3. By a large margin, girls are much less likely than boys to be held back one year. In 2009-2010 across all grade levels, 61% of the students held back for academic reasons were boys and only 39% were girls.
4. A greater percentage of girls in 7th or 8th grade (20%) are taking Algebra I compared to boys (18%), and girls of every race/ethnicity are passing Algebra I at a higher rate than their male peers.

The really interesting thing to me is that very few people are talking about it. There’s literally a crisis going on here, and almost nobody is talking about it. And even fewer even know about it, which is a separate issue worth discussing all by itself.

Why is that? Well, maybe because our “leaders” in politics, the media, and various lobbying groups have other agendas, and are too deeply invested in goals that are in direct opposition to seeing that boys and young men thrive. While girls and young women are on the rise in nearly every way we can measure, in education, sports, and careers, it is often at the expense of boys and young men. This is not a healthy situation, for anybody.

Ask yourself why politicians, the media, and various special-interest groups demand that we obsess over how rough everything is for women, gays, and minorities, but completely ignore whether we as a nation are meeting the needs of our boys and young men. Because we are not meeting those needs, when you look into the trends and the numbers.

Boys and young men that are not doing well in school means that as they transition into adulthood, they are much more likely to suffer long-term problems with careers, income, relationships, and just about everything else. This is already happening, and is known as “failure to launch”, according to several experts who have studied this issue. 

Yet, nothing. Near-total silence. Somebody want to explain this? A cynical person might say that politicians, the media, and various special-interest groups are actually glad that boys and young men are lagging, because they are so wrapped up in outdated politics from the 1960s built on the corrosive idea that gains for one group of people must necessarily come at the expense of another group of people. Class warfare, in other words.

Actually, a realistic person might say that. Such as myself. Right here, right now.

I have three sons and obviously I want them to succeed in life – actually, you want them to succeed in life too, even if you don’t know why – and it would be swell if we as a nation could take a look around and understand what we are doing different in our culture and our schools that disrupts what should be so natural and simple: allowing boys and young men to flourish naturally. Holding up the virtues of masculinity in our culture once again would help, and I’m far from the first to suggest that.

While we obsess over counting calories expended in gym class to protect the physical health of our boys and girls, and we obsess over the emotional and mental health of our girls, we essentially ignore the mental health needs of our boys.

No media coverage, no national conversation, no questions at presidential debates. This means we either assume they have no needs at all, or that the needs they do have are not as important as the needs of others.

The first is obviously false. Are we ready as a nation to admit to ourselves that we actually believe that the needs of our boys and young men are not as important as the needs of others?

What we’re doing now is not working. We as a nation and as a culture are in the middle of a failure of leadership that impacts boys disproportionately, and we are accountable. Let’s start there.

Fifteen years

Back in 2006, for our ninth anniversary, I wrote Thoughts on an Anniversary, and still like what it says, especially the last few paragraphs. I’m no genius, but I do learn valuable life lessons, and one of the most important is that as life is a continual learning experience, so is marriage, and when you put the team before the individual most of the time, good things happen. Happy Fifteenth Anniversary, Hon.

Yesterday was our ninth anniversary. My wife sometimes thinks I don’t appreciate her, or recognize the value of what she brings to our lives. And sometimes she is right, in the sense that I often think of such things, but less often speak out loud about them.

But nearly every day I thank God for our health, and our beautiful kids, and for the miracle of my second chance in this life to earn the love of a good woman who in turn appreciates me for who I am, and loves our kids like there is no tomorrow. Because sometimes, there isn’t one. This, I’ve learned from her.

I know she does a much better job than I ever could at all kinds of things. And I know I don’t say that enough, and sometimes focus on things she isn’t doing that I wish she would. It seems that Life, as I continue to learn, is often Imperfect, but still Very, Very Nice.

And I know how big a part she plays in making it that way, by focusing on the kids, and volunteering at church and school, and cultivating other relationships outside the home; it’s doubtful that I could, or would, make the same choices, or be as good at them if I did. Time is something you can never get back; I could probably come close to focusing on the kids as much as she does, but as for the other stuff, I’d probably be home cleaning the kitchen counters. Which, you know, has some intrinsic value, but ultimately, when you get done, all you have is a clean countertop, instead of having gone out into the world and spending that time you’ll never get back on people.

I admire this, and value it, partly because she’s is a natural at it and I’m not, and partly because I understand how important such choices ultimately are. This, I’ve learned from her. Clean countertops, useful as they are, can only take one so far.

And believe me, I do realize how intense and judgmental I can sometimes be, and how this puts a burden on those I love. I guess I have pretty high standards for all kinds of things. At least part of this is out of a desire to set a good example for our kids; but also to demand a lot from myself. And as part of that, I have to demand a lot from my wife, and the mother of our kids. This is part of a grand design; mom and dad set good examples, and demand a lot from their kids, but at the same time show their love and affection for each other and the kids. Tough Love, more or less. While it might create friction sometimes, I think it is ultimately the best way to raise up your kids, and is therefore worth whatever small price we might have to pay along the way.

And I’ve come a long way — or at least a short way — in mellowing out on certain things, and in trying to teach myself the lesson that a little bit of chaos might be ok if people are ultimately the beneficiary. This, I’m still learning from her. Among many other things. And I hope she’s learning from me as well. That’s how it is supposed to work, or so I hear.

So here’s what I think. I think, imperfect as we are as two individuals, we make a pretty darn good team. And I know I really wouldn’t do anything different, even if I could. Over the last few years, and especially the last few months, I keep wondering if my life, as it has turned out, is some kind of fantastic dream, and I fear that I’m going to wake up one day. So I hope and pray, quite often, that I never do.

To my wife, I’d like to now say, I Love and Appreciate You, for who you are, very much, and every day. Try to remember that, even when I’m being a bear sometimes. Because I’m imperfect, too. And I too struggle with who I am, and the burdens I put on my loved ones.

But I keep trying, because nothing matters more to me.

Happy Anniversary, Honey.

Pew Survey on students’ ability to focus in the digital age

A recent Pew Internet & American Life Project report surveyed 2,462 middle and high school Advanced Placement and national writing project teachers and concluded that: “Overwhelming majorities agree with the assertions that today’s digital technologies are creating an easily distracted generation with short attention spans, and today’s students are too ‘plugged in’ and need more time away from their digital technologies.”

Two-thirds of the respondents agree with the notion that today’s digital technologies do more to distract students than to help them academically. Mind you, we are talking about teachers who typically teach the best and brightest students and not those who we would generally think of as highly distractible.

[...]

We also looked at whether these distractors might predict who was a better student in general. Not surprisingly, those who stayed on task longer and had well-developed study strategies were better students. The worst students were those who consumed more media each day and had a preference for switching back and forth between several tasks at the same time.

One additional result stunned us: If the students checked Facebook just once during the 15-minute study period, they had a lower grade-point average. It didn’t matter how many times they looked at Facebook; once was enough. Not only did social media negatively impact their temporary focus and attention, but it ultimately impacted their entire school performance.

This is both unsurprising and a disaster in slow motion. We really, really have to get a grip on technology in our lives, and learn to recognize when too much is not enough.

via Driven to distraction: How to help wired students learn to focus | eSchool News.